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Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index 2022
Where the world’s most dynamic markets are in their recovery -- and where they’re looking for new growth
Logistics experts’ predictions on emerging markets in 2022
29.7%
strong to moderate global growth
12.6%
little or no chance of recession
20.3%
recession unlikely
20.9%
recession likely
8.5%
recession certain
When will shipping rates come down?
Two years into the COVID pandemic, rates for ocean, air, road and rail shipments are at or near records across much of the world. Ocean shippers, for instance, are paying four times more per container than they paid before the virus triggered a global health crisis in early 2020. The snarled supply chains are the result of several factors, including periodic lockdowns at Asia production facilities and ports, reduced capacity aboard cargo ships and aircraft, a shortage of shipping containers, port constraints, trucker and truck shortages, soaring U.S. consumer demand and shocks such as the blockage of the Suez Canal by the Ever Given container ship, the spread of the omicron virus in late 2021, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
| Ocean | Air | |
| End of ‘21 | 7% | 8.2% |
| Q1 ‘22 | 11.7% | 17.5% |
| Q2 ‘22 | 15.2% | 19.3% |
| H2 ‘22 | 24.6% | 19.9% |
| 2023 | 26.3% | 24% |
| High rates are here to stay | 15.2% | 11.1% |
What’s behind the global supply chain disruption?
28.8%
Pandemic Closures, Congestion
23.8%
Container Shortages
13.1%
Carrier Capacity Management
8.7%
Port Infrastructure
7.7%
Overheated Global Economy
7.6%
Carrier Price Gouging
4.9%
E-Commerce Acceleration
3.5%
Driver Shortage
1.8%
Warehousing Shortage
What’s the status of the regional economies that are home to emerging markets?
| Asia Pacific | MENA | Russia, Central Asia | South America | Sub-Saharan Africa | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fully recovered & stronger than pre-pandemic | 17.1% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3% |
| Still hindered but recovering | 36.5% | 47.3% | 51% | 59.3% | 50.7% |
| Not yet at pre-pandemic level | 37.2% | 36% | 35% | 17.4% | 17.4% |
| Worst still to come | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 19% | 28.9% |
Factors that will drive economic and business growth in emerging markets
14.5%
Adoption of Technology
11.7%
Speed of Pandemic Recovery
10.2%
Consumer Demand
9.8%
Macro Pressures (Inflation, Interest Rates, etc.)
9.7%
Freight Rates & Capacity
9.6%
Online Retail/ E-Commerce
9.6%
Trade Climate
9.5%
Government Policies
7.9%
Financing for Entrepreneurs/SMEs
7.6%
Sustainable Business Practices
What the logistics industry will focus on in 2022 and beyond
14.3%
Operational Technology (Visibility, TMS, Inventory Management Systems)
14%
Sustainable Supply Chain Operations
13%
Advanced Technology (Blockchain, AI, etc.)
10%
Circular Manufacturing Practices
9.9%
Consumer Attitudes/Activism
38.8%
Other
Emerging Markets Index
News Release
Logistics industry executives see record freight rates and port disruption lingering well into 2022 - but are surprisingly optimistic about the global economy. They offer insights into strategic priorities, investments, sustainability, technology and digital forwarding in the 2022 Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index, which ranks the world's 50 top emerging markets by logistics infrastructure, business conditions and digital readiness.