Agility Mid-Year Emerging Markets Review 2017

Mid Year Review - Emerging Market Listing Index 2017 Mid Year Review - Emerging Market Listing Index 2017 Mid Year Review - Emerging Market Listing Index 2017
 

 Introduction

 

Essa Al-Saleh, CEO & President
Agility Global Integrated Logistics (GIL)

Global trade expanded at a healthy rate in Q1 2017, a welcome surprise that signalled a possible recovery after roughly nine years of trade stagnation and decline. Unfortunately, the uptick could prove fleeting as we see worrisome signs of creeping protectionism and trade nationalism, along with heightened political uncertainty in parts of the world. Uncertainty “discourages investment, especially crossborder investment,” says Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz. Businesses “think twice as they construct global supply chains.” We agree. Two of the biggest unknowns for global business are economic reforms in India and the UK’s exit from the European Union. In this report, Agility and its partner, Transport Intelligence, examine the implications of the UK’s Brexit for emerging markets and look at two important reforms in India: one, a unified “GST” tax to replace its baffling array of business taxes, and second, the surprise withdrawal of 500-rupee and 1,000-rupee bank notes from circulation in what has traditionally been a cash-driven economy. The goal of this report, and of our annual Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index, is to give businesses information that will help inform their decisions. Thank you for reading.

John Manners-Bell, CEO
Transport Intelligence

Emerging markets continue to surprise not least due to continuing political and economic volatility. This is no more apparent than in the Middle East where the fast-moving Qatar diplomatic crisis has forced regional supply chains to rapidly re-shape. Across the Gulf, despite the hostile rhetoric of the Trump administration, Iran is increasingly reintegrating with the world economy and, in Latin America, it also seems that Argentina, under a new government, is re-opening its economy to foreign investment. Demonetisation in India, one of the leading BRIC countries, has proved to be an unexpected headache, but the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) represents a fantastic opportunity for the economy. Organised logistics will probably benefit more than any other economic sector as India effectively becomes a single market. Elsewhere, provided that it departs the European customs union, Brexit will present opportunities for emerging markets to forge closer trade ties with the UK. Looking ahead, the immediate outlook appears encouraging as growth in advanced economies has picked up, stoking global trade growth. As ever, there is volatility to contend with in emerging markets, but this is nothing new for logistics providers willing to take a bit more risk for potentially higher rewards.

To read the Mid-Year Emerging Market Review 2017 full report, click here​.​​​